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Mr. Zhu Qianguo*
The Sticking Points and the Prospect of the Iranian Nuclear Issue
On March 24, 2007, the UN Security
Council adopted the 1747 Resolution on the Iranian nuclear issue.
The Resolution steps up the sanction against Iranian nuclear and
missile programs by demanding Iran to adopt a moratorium on its
uranium enrichment activities and at the same time seek to solve the
Iranian nuclear issue through negotiation. The Iranian nuclear issue
once again has come to a stalemate.
Then what are the sticking points of the Iranian nuclear issue? How
will the r issue evolve? There are many analyses. The Iranian
nuclear issue, just like other hot issues in the Middle East, is
deeply rooted.
I. There are 3 major contradictions on the Iranian nuclear issues
The first is the contradiction between nuclear proliferation and
nuclear nonproliferation. Currently, the international community has
formed consensus that international security can be best served with
less nuclear weapons. However, on the one hand, the USA and other
nuclear weapons states refuse to dramatically cut down their nuclear
arsenals, and enhance the role of nuclear weapons, even by
formulating nuclear preemption strategy and improving the quality of
nuclear weapons. Some have tacitly accepted that India, Israel as
nuclear weapons states. On the other hand, the USA does not allow
other NPT states parties, especially those having ideological
difference with the West countries to engage in developing uranium
enrichment capabilities permitted by the NPT. This actually deprives
some countries like Iran of the legitimate right to peaceful use of
nuclear energy. In this sense, The USA and other Western countries
are pursuing a double standard in nonproliferation.
Iran believes it has the legitimate right to peaceful use of nuclear
energy according to the NPT. Therefore it insists that its bottom
policy is to have uranium enrichment technology. Facing the UN
Security Resolutions demanding Iran to suspend uranium enrichment,
all of the Iranian leaders responded strongly and called the
Resolutions illegitimate.
The second is the contradiction between peaceful use of nuclear
energy and nuclear proliferation. The NPT allows the countries that
already had nuclear weapons before 1965, to legally possess nuclear
weapons and stipulates that those countries that did not have
nuclear weapons commit to give up the development of nuclear
weapons, however they can peacefully use nuclear energy. This was
the result of the international order dominated by big powers, since
the first nuclear weapons states are big powers. However, on the
other hand, since the NPT allows those countries that have given up
their right to develop nuclear weapons to peaceful use of nuclear
energy, Iran naturally has the legitimate right to develop its own
capability to produce nuclear material. Iran has primarily built a
complete nuclear fuel cycle system and
has the capability of uranium conversion and uranium enrichment and
tested plutonium separation technology. On April 4, 2006, Iran
declared that it got several hundred grams of 4.8% enriched uranium
by using a cascade with 164 centrifuges after it resumed uranium
enrichment activities. Now it is believed with certainty that Iran
has installed 2 cascades with 328 centrifuges. Iran plans to install
cascades with 3000 centrifuges in the near future. Technically
speaking, if time permits, Iran will be able to produce enough
nuclear material and develop nuclear weapons. Up to now, Iran has
not yet reached the phase of developing nuclear weapons. The USA
believes that without imposing restrictions Iran may have the
capability to develop nuclear weapons within 3 to 10 years.
On the other hand, although the NPT allows the non-nuclear weapons
states to have the capability to produce nuclear materials, these
countries must report all their nuclear activities to the IAEA and
accept the IAEA’s safeguard and inspection. However, the IAEA’s
safeguard has been not able to prevent nuclear materials from being
used for nuclear weapons for many years. Iran had conducted secret
nuclear activities for more than a decade and was not discovered.
Especially when a country, that has obtained enough capabilities
when it is a NPT states party, declares to withdraw from the NPT and
develops nuclear weapon, the NPT and the international community do
not have any good means to prevent it. Recently, the UN Security
Council adopted several resolutions on the Iranian nuclear issue and
the primary reason is that Iran has secret nuclear activities and
some of its activities have violated its obligation of subjecting
these activities to the IAEA’s full safeguards. But this is not the
key of the problem. The key of the problem is that the USA and other
Western countries firmly believe that Iran has the intention of
developing nuclear weapons. However, the IAEA has not found any
solid proof of Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Actually, to a
quite large extent it is under the USA dominance that the UN
Security Council and adopted those Resolutions on Iran.
The third contradiction is that there are differences between the
USA and Iran and among the big powers in terms of geo-strategic
interests in the Middle East.
That the strategic goals and interests of the USA and Iran are
conflicting with each other is the fundamental cause that the
Iranian nuclear issue has not been solved. On the one hand, after
“9/11”, the USA listed Iran as one of “the Axis of Evil” and of the
7 countries that supported terrorism in the world. In the US’s
National Security Report released in March 2006, the USA firmly held
that Iran was the US’s number one enemy, one of the tyrannies and
the biggest threat of proliferation. The USA criticizes that Iran is
a center of terrorism, sheltering terrorists at home and, supporting
terrorists at abroad, interfering in the internal affairs of Iraq,
Lebanon and Palestine. The USA believes that Iran seeks to develop
nuclear technology means that Iran wants to have nuclear weapons. If
Iran has nuclear weapons, that would mean the US’s policy towards
Iran is a failure and President Bush’s grand strategy of democratic
reform of the Middle East will face serious challenge. Therefore,
the USA cannot accept that Iran has the capability of making nuclear
weapons. The USA regards Iranian nuclear issue as an obstacle
blocking the USA from realizing its global strategy. The USA has
defined Iran as one of “the Axis of Evil”, exaggerated Iran’s
threats to the US’s security for the purpose of making the Iranian
nuclear issue to serve its strategy to control the Middle East.
Under the current international order dominated by the big powers
and that the national security interests of the small powers can not
be guaranteed by themselves, Iran seeks national independence and
security and wants to realize its dream of becoming a regional
power. After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office, Iran obviously
considered the US’s strategic deployment in the broader Middle East
the biggest real threat to Iran. Iranian President has made quite a
few tough speeches opposing the USA and Israel in Iran and in other
Middle East countries so as to strengthen domestic political
cohesion and exhibit its aspiration of striving for big power
status. Directed by the dream of becoming a regional power dream and
the experiences from India and Israel that only nuclear weapons
could protect national security and enhance a country’s status in
the international community, Iran has come to the realization that
only by having nuclear technology could its security effectively be
guaranteed. The nuclear program, which is against the Islamic creed,
is becoming widely supported in Iran. Iran has repeatedly made clear
that it does not have the intention to develop nuclear weapons,
however it has the legitimate right to use nuclear technology for
peaceful purpose and to master such technologies.
Although the Iranian nuclear issue is mainly created by political
confrontation between Iran and the USA, neither the USA has the
political will to seek reconciliation with Iran, nor Iran is willing
to bend to the US’s high political pressure. Even if the USA gives
up its hostile policy to Iran, Iran still does not want to give up
its strategy of seeking regional power status, the Iranian nuclear
issue still cannot be solved smoothly. Therefore, although the US
factor plays a decisive role in the process of solving the Iranian
nuclear issue, the strategic intention of Iran should not be
neglected. It is not difficult to find that although Iran has
repeatedly promised that developing nuclear technology is for
peaceful use of nuclear energy. But if developing nuclear technology
is purely for peaceful purpose, Iran will show flexibility on
producing enriched uranium for peaceful nuclear energy within or
outside its territory.
That Russia, the EU and China have economic interests in Iran is
always a major factor affecting the Iranian nuclear issue. In recent
years, Iran has cooperated with Russia, France, Germany, Japan and
China on its oil and gas market. The energy sectors of these
countries have invested more than $100 billion in Iran. The UN
Security Council Resolution on Iran adopted on Mary 23, 2007
accepted the Russian’s recommendation, only imposing sanctions
against the Iranian nuclear sector and not restricting the Iranian
officials’ visit to foreign countries and its enterprises’ economic
activities with foreign countries. Thus, Russia is able to protect
its own economic interests in Iran and continues to implement the
contracts it signed with Iran, including the contracts on building
Bushehr nuclear power station and military technology cooperation.
At present, 70% of Iran’s import of military technologies is from
Russia’s 13 defense corporations. Russia will continue to cooperate
with Iran on military technologies and will provide defensive
weapons to Iran.
II. The Prospect of the Iranian Nuclear Issue and Its Impact on the
International Situation
If the international situation does not undergo any big change, the
Iranian nuclear issue will continue to be crisis-ridden but will not
develop into a full crisis.
First, Iran will not give up its goal of developing nuclear energy
and will continue to step up its efforts to install more uranium
enrichment facilities. This is because: First, Iran wants to realize
its dream of being a regional power by developing nuclear
technology, thus will not easily abandon its nuclear program. Since
the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1747 on March 24, Iran’s
position has not changed. The Iranian senior leaders have time again
said that Iran’s nuclear program is totally for peaceful purpose,
Iran will not seek confrontation, and pressure and coercion can not
change Iran’s policy. Second, to highlight the development of
nuclear program is an important way used by the Ahmadinejad
government to inspire national pride and consolidate domestic
political power. On April 9, 2006, after the Iranian government
declared that Iran could produce low enrichment uranium and
President Ahmadinejad said that Iran would enter the international
nuclear club. This was celebrated by the whole nation. The Iranian
people are united and wholeheartedly support the government and the
Ahmadinejad government was further consolidated. However on April 9,
when Ahmadinejad declared that Iran had the capability to start
industrial-scale nuclear fuel production and Iran entered the
nuclear club, and at almost the same time, the UN Security Council
adopted two resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran, Ahmadinejad
faced increasing criticism domestically, it became much more
necessary to highlight the development of nuclear energy and the
latest nuclear achievements. That is why to declare having 3000
centrifuges is more important than to let them operate. Third, if
Iran plans to compromise, it needs to further increase the
bargaining chip, so to seek advantages for negotiation. Although
Iran declared that it has started industrial-scale uranium
enrichment, Iranian officials are ambiguous when answering questions
about Iranian centrifuges. Some international nuclear experts
believe Iran’s statement that it has installed and are operating
3000 centrifuges is just a false show of strength.
David Albright, former UN nuclear inspector, says it is difficult to
believe Iran has 3000 centrifuges at one time and it is doubtful
that Iran is able to operate so many centrifuges with the same speed
at the same time. Some U.S. experts believe that Iran may operate
just 2 cascades with 164 centrifuges each and its operating
efficiency is not more than 20%.
Second, the opportunity for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue by
the means of sanctions or military strike has not arrived and there
is still hope to solve the issue through diplomatic channel.
This is because: Iran has always emphasized that it has the right to
peaceful use of nuclear energy, has never said that it wants to
develop nuclear weapons and the USA does not have any hard evidence
to prove that Iran is indeed developing nuclear weapons. Even when
the Iranian nuclear issue almost entered a stalemate, Elbaradei, the
IAEA Director General, said on March 30 that up to now no evidence
had been found that the Iranian nuclear activities were for
non-peaceful purpose. On April 12, Elbaradei said that Iran was
stepping up the construction of its uranium enrichment base in
Natanz, however its purpose was to install 54000 centrifuges for
uranium enrichment. Actually, there are only several hundred
centrifuges at Natanz. He said uranium enrichment was not
terrifying, what people should be worried about was Iran’s
intention. Besides, Iran still keeps cooperation with people from
the IAEA and these people still maintain their regular inspections
on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This shows that Iranian nuclear
program is still under the IAEA’s monitoring.
Secondly, Iran still has cooperation on oil and gas with big powers
including Russia, France, Germany, China etc., and the interests of
these countries are interwoven. If to impose full sanctions or start
a war against Iran, Iran may suspend its oil export and the oil of
the oil producing countries in the Gulf may not be transported to
the outside world. This will lead to the rise of oil price and will
seriously hurt the world economy. Many countries simply cannot bear
the situation and will resist or oppose full-scale economic
sanctions or military actions against Iran. This is also the reason
that currently the UN’s sanctions are limited to the areas relating
to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Thirdly, according to the public opinion poll in the USA, the
majority of the Americans want to solve the Iranian nuclear issue
through diplomatic means. The Bush administration has faced many
condemnations for the Iraq war. If the Bush administration starts a
war against Iran without any reason, the Bush administration will
fall into serious political crisis. Besides, once the USA starts a
war against Iran, it not only has to face Iran’s revenge, but also
to face the “Jihad” or attacks from the Iranian supporters including
the anti-US armed forces in Iraq, such as the Hamas, Hezbollah and
Al-Qaida. If the US’s bottom line on the Iranian nuclear issue is to
strengthen its control over the Middle East, it is not necessary for
the USA to fight a war against Iran currently.
Fourthly, according to the analysis of the intelligence agencies in
the USA and other Western countries, Iran still needs time to have
nuclear weapons. This also gives time to the USA. On the one hand,
the USA hopes to force Iran to suspend uranium enrichment through
UN’s sanctions. On the other hand, the USA wants to completely solve
the Iranian nuclear issue through regime change. In March 2006, the
US State Department established the Iran Office and allocated $75
million to promote democracy in Iran. This is also a major part of
the US’s democratic reform strategy in the broader Middle East. The
USA is afraid that Iran may undermine its strategy in the Middle
East, so it has insisted on that Iran must give up its nuclear
program. If the Iranian government is not opposed to the USA, the
USA will accept tacitly Iran’s development of its nuclear
technology.
Fifthly, every side always tries to keep some room for maneuver.
Although the US’s Vice President Cheney clearly declared in last
February that the USA would not rule out the use of force against
Iran, the USA has also expressed it wants to solve the Iranian
nuclear issue through diplomatic means. US Secretary of State Rice
has said that she would like to talk with the Iranian officials
under the condition that Iran suspends its uranium enrichment
activities. On the Iranian side, although President Ahmadinejad has
said Iran would counter-attack foreign military actions and
reiterated time and again that Iran would not suspend its uranium
enrichment activities, Iran has also expressed that it would seek to
solve the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means. The draft
resolution submitted by the 6 countries has reaffirmed that relevant
sanctions would be lifted if Iran has enforced relevant Resolutions.
This is to say that the sanctions against Iran are reversible. The
draft resolution is also the result of compromise by all sides.
The last reason is that there is still hope of compromise by the
Iranian side. In recent years, Iran has always responded strongly
when dealing with the international community on the Iranian nuclear
issue at first, but at the last moment, it often makes some
compromise so as to gain benefit.
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* Deputy Director of China Defense
Science and Technology Information Center
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