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Dr. Essam El-Henawi*
CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND POLITICS**
Sun rays falling on the atmosphere do
not entirely reach the earth's surface, 25% of the sun rays are
reflected into the space, and about 23% are absorbed into the
atmosphere itself. This means that only 52% of the sun rays
penetrate the atmosphere to reach the earth; 6% of this percentage
is reflected back into the space, and the other 46% are absorbed
into the earth and the waters of seas and oceans to provide warmth.
These warm surfaces, in their turn, emit heat and energy that are
absorbed as long-wave infrared rays. As the air contains some gases
in scarce concentrations; such as carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane, and
water vapor which are characterized by the penetration of infrared
rays which eventually leads to blocking such rays into the
atmosphere. This phenomenon is known as "Global Warming". Had it not
been for the Global Warming, the earth's surface temperature would
have been 33 o C less than its current level; i.e. below the
freezing point and life would have been impossible on the earth.
Many people think that Global Warming
is a new phenomenon that has only been known since the 1970s. This
perception prevailed due to media campaigns; stream of statements,
conferences and seminars on possibilities of the increase of earth
temperature (Global Warming) along with the potential climate
change. This perception is entirely wrong. The effect of the Global
Warming was first addressed by the French scientist, Foree, in 1824
when he tried to find an explanation for the warmth of the earth. He
attributed this to the atmosphere serving as the greenhouse which
keeps the heat within. Then, in 1865, Tindall, the British
scientist, conducted lab experiments to measure how water vapor and
carbon dioxide absorb heat, and he proved their significant effect.
In 1896, Arinos, the Swedish scientist, introduced the theory: "the
possibility of the increase in the earth temperature due to the
emission of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of burning
coal (common fuel at that time). He started to prepare a
mathematical model to measure the temperature increase; the quantity
of carbon dioxide resulting from such increase; and the required
time to make it happen. In 1897, the American scientist,
Chamberlain, supported Arinos's results. He also added that the
change in carbon dioxide was a major cause of the modern geological
Ice Ages. This means that the climate change topic had occupied the
minds of geologists, geographers, physicists, meteorologists, and
other scientists more than a century and a half ago, not after
Stockholm Conference (1972). Unfortunately, this scientific fact has
been ignored even in some highly accurate scientific works; i.e.
evaluations conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCCC) every 5 years since 1990.
Carbon dioxide is considered the major
greenhouse gas. Its concentration in the air depends on the
quantities emitted from human activities " especially combustion of
fossil fuels such as coal, petrol and natural gas; cement industry;
deforestation particularly tropical forests that are considered a
huge store for carbon. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the
air depends also on its removal and absorption rates in seas and
plants on the earth" known as the Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle; which
makes a balance in the carbon concentrations in the air. Different
studies have shown that this balance is disturbed due to the
increasing human activities. In the pre-industry age (1750 - 1800),
the carbon dioxide concentration was about 280 particle in a million
cubic meter in the air, however; in 2005 it was 379 in a million
cubic meter.
The quantity of the carbon dioxide
emitted into the atmosphere in 1900 was about 1960 million tons,
which increased to 5961 million tons in 1950; 23172 million tons in
the year 2000; and 27500 million tons in 2005. The developed
countries are responsible for about 50% of the total carbon dioxide
emissions in the world " the United States of America alone is
responsible for 24% of total emissions, followed by the European
Union 10%, Russia 7%; Japan 5%. Middle - income countries are
responsible for 41% of total carbon dioxide emissions; on the top of
which China 12%, India 4.7%, and Brazil 1.5%".
In addition, there are several other
greenhouse gases such as Methane, N2O, and Chloroform gases that all
cause the depletion of the ozone layer. Most countries ceased to
produce and use such gases according to Montreal Protocol. Such
gases contribute to the global warming depending on the gas emission
quantity, its final concentration in the atmosphere, gas life
expectancy, and its radiation level. This means that gas
potentiality to global warming differs from one gas to another.
Carbon dioxide is the least influential gas in the global warming
compared to the same weight of Methane or N2O along a constant
period (For instance, 50 or 100 years). But, the quantity of carbon
dioxide emitted in the world is greater than all other greenhouse
gases. Therefore, it is considered the main effective gas in the
global warming.
Expectations
For Temperature Increase Around The World
Since it is difficult to conduct a
direct study on the impact of the greenhouse gas accumulation in the
atmosphere, a set of mathematical models has been developed in the
past two decades in order to make future predictions. Modern models
showed that if carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is
doubled over its rate in the pre-industry age, this would lead to an
increase in the earth's temperature with regional variations.
A number of scientists doubted the
validity of the models used to estimate the temperature increase.
The state of uncertainty resulted from such models was proven by the
contradiction of the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). The first evaluation conducted by the IPCC in
1990 concluded that if the quantity of the carbon dioxide was
doubled in the atmosphere over its level in the pre-industry age,
the world temperature would increase with about 1.5 to 4.5o C. In
the second evaluation conducted in 1995, the IPCC mentioned that the
temperature percentage would be 1 - 3.5oC. In the third evaluation
in 2000, the IPCC mentioned that the temperature increase would be
1.4- " 5.8o C during the period 1990 - 2100. In the fourth
evaluation conducted early this year, the IPCC mentioned that the
most potential temperature increase is 1.8 to 4o C by the end of the
current century.
Repercussions
Of Temperature Increase In The World
The fourth report of the IPCC shows
that the temperature increase would be accompanied by climate
changes that will have a significant impact on the eco-systems on
the earth. Some say that such changes might be useful; others think
it would be harmful. For example, while the production of some
forests and crops would increase, other forests might have low
production. Also, while rainfall might be heavy, increasing water
sources, in some parts of the world, other parts lack water
especially arid and semi-arid regions. Also, the increase of
temperature may lead to raising the sea level with about 30 to 40 cm
due to thermal expansion in oceans. This level might increase about
10 to 20 more centimeters due to the melting of the ice in the north
and south Poles. Raising the sea level would result in sinking some
below-the sea level islands and coastal areas; which would make
millions of human beings homeless and result in catastrophic
economic and social damages. The report shows that the potential
climate changes would have different repercussions that vary from
one continent to another and from one region to another in the same
continent.
In Africa, the drought phenomenon is
expected to increase in the continent in general and in the southern
west of the continent in particular, while rainfall rates may
increase over high mountains in the east and the middle part on the
equator. By 2020, it is estimated that about 75 to 250 million
inhabitants in Africa would be under increasing pressures of lack of
fresh water and food sources including fisheries. In coastal areas,
the increase of sea level would lead to make huge parts of low
coastal areas in North Africa sink, especially the Nile Delta, and
in the middle part of West Africa. This would result in losing vast
agricultural land and different facilities, and would also affect
the productivity of the neighboring agricultural land due to the
increase of the salt water level.
In Asia, the melting of ice in
Himalayas may lead to more floods over mountain bottoms. Fresh water
quantities are expected to decrease in great river basins in the
middle, south, east and southern east of Asia. This would affect the
life style of about a billion inhabitants in this area by the year
2050. Also, the coastal areas in the south, east, and southern east
of Asia would be affected by floods and the increase of the sea
level. However, climate change may lead to increasing the
agricultural crops up to 20% in east and southern east of Asia while
such productivity would decrease to 30% in the middle and south of
Asia.
Did The
Temperature Increase During The Last Century?
During the last century, detailed
analyses of temperatures registered around the world showed that the
world average temperature rose by about 0.6o C during the period
1901 - 2000. The third report of the IPCC showed that such increase
was consistent with the mathematical models results used in
forecasting the temperature. This proves that global warming has
started. However, a number of scientists see that such increase is
within the normal climate changes, especially that the detailed
analysis of temperature during the period 1940 -1970 showed an
international decrease in the temperature by 2.0 o C. But, the
fourth report of the IPCC issued early this year showed that the
world temperature has increased by about 0.75o C during the period
1906 - 2005, and that the period 1956 " 2005 has witnessed most of
the temperature increase. The report also showed that there is a 90%
of certainty that the main reason of temperature increase is due to
human activities.
Climat Change
Convention, Kyoto Protocol
Due to the international growing
attention given to the climate change issue, the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) had been signed
during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Convention aims to
"achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with
the climate system during a period that would allow the eco-systems
to accommodate with climate change". The developed countries and
East and Central Europe committed to adopt policies and procedures
to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 levels by the
year 2000. The Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (CTOC) “parties ratified the UNFCCC” is the
supreme authority to monitor the implementation of the convention.
It was decided to hold annual meetings to the CTOC for monitoring
and taking the required decisions. In the first meeting of the CTOC
held in Berlin in 1995, it was necessary to reach an agreement on
new commitments to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions after the
year 2000. In the CTOC third meeting held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997,
the "Kyoto Protocol" was adopted to obligate industrial countries to
reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% by the period
2008 - 2012 below the levels of the year 1990. Also, there were
three mechanisms developed under the Kyoto Protocol to help the
parties to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions: the Clean
Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation and Emissions Trading.
The hastiness and political dominance over science in the CTOC
proceedings have led to take the impetuous decision and adopt the
Kyoto Protocol leading to a great confusion particularly in the
ambiguous implementation methods. Ever since 1998, there have been
significant differences in the stances of countries especially
between the developed and developing countries on the details of the
mechanisms stated by the Protocol. In addition, some countries had
reservations about the Protocol because: 1) it didn't stipulate the
obligations of the developing countries that are expected to be
responsible for increasing quantities of the greenhouse gas
emissions by the year 2010; and 2) it encourages, indirectly, the
transfer of some economic activities, that result in high
concentrations of the green house gases, to the developing
countries. The Clean Development Mechanism and The Emissions Trading
system raise several questions particularly concerning how well such
mechanisms would achieve the Protocol objectives. For example, it
was found that it is cheaper for a developed country to buy its
share of carbon from a developing country under the guise of "Clean
Development Mechanism" and abide by the Protocol obligations than to
reduce such share from its territories. The concern here is that the
developed countries would determine the price of the carbon ton, and
the sale and purchase processes would be subject to political and
strategic factors.
On 28th March 2001, the US Administration declared withdrawal from
Kyoto Protocol due to its repercussions on the US economy and the
ambiguity of mechanism implementation. The US Administration has
taken this decision after finding that committing to reduce its gas
emissions would affect the economic growth and life style while
allowing some developing countries, which are not obligated to
reduce gas emission according to the Protocol, to consume increasing
quantities of fossil fuel to achieve a rapid growth rates like the
case in China for instance. In spite of the criticism directed to
the US Administration for its withdrawal, modern studies show that
most European countries couldn't be able to fulfill their
obligations stated in the Kyoto Protocol by the year 2012. For
example: Austria, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal,
Switzerland, and Norway would not be able to achieve the Protocol's
objectives. There are also questions marks over the ability of
France, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to achieve such
objectives.
It is obvious that the rapid economic
growth in China, India, Brazil, and other developed countries has
raised the concern of the US that is keen to protect its
international prestige under globalization. It is also obvious that
some European countries have dampened their enthusiasm that appeared
in Kyoto after the Protocol's economic repercussions have become
clear. But, as a face-saving action, talks have mounted about "the
post-Kyoto Period"; the diplomatic language to cover the failure of
Kyoto Protocol. This was explicitly clear in the Eighth Summit held
in Heiligendamm, Germany with its declaration issued on June 7th,
2007. The Declaration became clearer when it extended the invitation
for all countries to participate in the United Nations Conference on
Climate Change that will be held in Indonesia in December 2007 to
reach a general agreement for the "post-Kyoto: after 2012" including
all major countries with greenhouse gas emissions. The Declaration
then stated the necessity of developing an international framework
in this regard by the end of 2008 to be issued in an international
convention in 2009. The Declaration contains an explicit text on
communications with Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa
in this concern. There are predictions in different circles about
making the post-Kyoto Convention unbinding or make it binding to all
developed and developing countries alike except for the Least
Developed Countries (LDCs), and giving up all the Kyoto Convention
Mechanisms.
In other words, things have been
restored to square one, the pre-Kyoto Protocol in 1997, in spite of
all the media hype and drama films on climate change, ice melting,
losing the Polar Bear, and hundreds of futile conferences and
seminars that have spent billions of dollars during the past ten
years.
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* professor at the National Research Center, Dokki, Cairo.
** Translated by Dr. Iman Shakeeb.
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